The Handy Captain

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Item! Casino Drive has been pulled from the Belmont! The Japanese owned entrant posed the greatest threat * to Big Brown’s Triple Crown quest, but was scratched this morning due to a bruise on his left hind hoof. A shame too, since he was the most formidable * * Japanese challenger in American sport since Takeru “The Tsunami” Kobayashi’s valiant attempt to out gorge a 1089-pound Kodiak Bear in a televised bunless hot dog eating contest * * *.

But really, like the rest of the field, Casino Drive never really had a chance. Much has been made of Big Brown’s own ailment, a quarter crack on his left front hoof. I’m confident though, that trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. will shoot his horse up with enough drugs that he won’t feel anything except adulation when he crosses the finish line first.

With Big Brown’s victory a given, the only question now is how to ascend into the next tax bracket by wagering on this race. Of course exotic wagering is the answer. Here’s how I’m playing the Belmont:

Key Big Brown to win in a trifecta wheel with Denis of Cork, Tale of Ekati, Ready’s Echo, and Icabad Crane.

Ready’s Echo should be a great value play. He closed well to finish third in the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont. The distance would figure to suit his running style and his Beyer Speed Figures have gotten better with distance in his last three races.

Tale of Ekati, like Ready’s Echo, has experience at Belmont, winning both of his starts there. He’s also fresh, as this is his first race since finishing 4th in a tough Derby field.

Denis of Cork and Icabad Crane can also handle the mile and a half distance. The former rallied to finish 3rd in the Derby while the latter has genes loaded with endurance.

* The threat was not great
* * Or, more accurately, the least unformidable
* * * I earned a handsome profit on that one, taking Kobayashi under 35 hot dogs

With all the negative publicity surrounding Thoroughbred Racing this week, you’d think the safest bet on today’s Preakness is a superfecta box involving the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse!

The focus should be on Big Brown’s chance to become the first Triple Crown winner since 1978. Instead, thoroughbred horse racing has become a magnet for controversy in the wake of Eight Belles’ tragic death at the Kentucky Derby. Many in the media would have you believe the sport is limping along on its last leg, hobbling toward the finish line, unable to dodge criticism from those who want to see it put down for good. Alarmingly, that group includes 38 percent of Americans who, according to a recent Gallup poll support an all out ban on horse racing*.

But fear not Thoroughbred enthusiasts, for horse racing will soon be on the mend when Big Brown wins the Triple Crown. After all, this is the sport of kings and for proof, look no further than the patrons of your nearest OTB. They’ll all feel like royalty today if they bet the Preakness as I do. Unless of course they get detained by police afterward for leaving their 9-week-old baby in the car while they watch the race inside the off-track betting facility.

Here’s how I’m playing the Preakness:

I’m keying Big Brown in a trifecta wheel with Gayego, Giant Moon, Kentucky Bear, and Yankee Bravo

I like Giant Moon based on his performance against elite competition in the Wood Memorial. His pedigree also suggests he can handle the distance and I blame his lousy race two back on the sloppy track.

Here’s hoping Gayego’s nightmare performance in the Kentucky Derby was an aberration. Plus, the competition in that race was head and shoulders above this Preakness field. I look for a performance from him today more akin to his win at the Arkansas Derby.

Kentucky Bear is inexperienced, but fresh, coming off a five week layoff. Also ran well in the Bluegrass, finishing 3rd behind Kentucky Derby entrants Monba and Cowboy Cal.

Yankee Bravo ran well against quality competition in the Santa Anita Derby and Louisiana Derby. The latter was noteworthy in that it was first trip on dirt.

*Interesting that only 21 percent are proponents of a ban on hunting.  Apparently a sizable portion of the populace finds racing animals to be inhumane, but has no problem with killing them for sport!

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2008 Kentucky Derby Picks

• Exacta Box:  Col. John, Big Brown, and Gayego

Put the most cash on this box, obviously rooting for Gayego to bump one of the favorites.

And for some real price plays:

• Gayego to win

• Recapturetheglory across the board

• Several superfecta combinations of Col. John, Big Brown, Gayego, and Monba

Although it wasn’t a Grade 1 race, really like Gayego coming off his win at the Arkansas Derby, where he beat out Z Fortune, recorded a 103 Beyer, and successfully made the transition to a dirt surface.  Whether or not he can go the distance is a concern.

Pyro was my most noteworthy omission. . .Polytrack or not, his lousy performance in the Blue Grass scared me away.  

Wifi connections are scarce near Sportsbooks, so no in-depth analysis for now. . .just trust me. I’ll be adding my picks to this blog entry each day.

Sweet 16, Thursday Picks

Washington St. vs. UNC - under 141.5

Xavier +1 vs. West Virginia

Xavier vs. West Virginia - over 136.5

Louisville -3 vs. Tennessee

Sweet 16, Friday Picks

Got 5 outta 5 yesterday after I took UNC in the 2nd half. I’ve changed my mind on the Stanford/Texas game which is being played in Houston.

Davidson +5 vs. Wisconsin

Davidson’s Stephen Curry over 22.5

Texas -2 vs. Stanford

Michigan St. +5 vs. Memphis

Read More »

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  Having seen his authority wither into a shriveled sack of steroid induced impotency, the last thing Major League Baseball commissioner Bud Selig needed was another scandal.  But before the rank stench of Roger Clemens’s foresworn denials before Congress could waft off the front pages, this bombshell was dropped:  Cockfighting is rampant in baseball.

First it was reported that Hall of Fame pitcher Juan Marichal and New York Mets ace Pedro Martinez served as celebrity “soltadores” for a cockfight in their native country, the Dominican Republic.  As such, the duo were responsible for releasing the roosters at the start of the match.  Then news broke that Chicago Cubs 3rd baseman Aramis Ramirez was featured in En la Traba, a Dominican cockfighting magazine.  Ramirez, photographed with roosters he raises for fighting, was quoted in the monthly periodical as saying, “When I’m in the Dominican Republic, I’m dedicated entirely to them”.  When confronted by journalists stateside, however, the slugger “balked” at discussing his passion further, saying only that cockfighting is part of the (presumably bloodstained) fabric of Dominican culture.  Indeed, the sport is popular, legal, and regulated not only there, but also in Venezuela, Colombia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan, among other countries.

Now many bloodsport enthusiasts are probably asking how something could be considered so vile if endorsed by professional athletes and the Venezuelan government.  Additionally, a high-profile member of the influential American Hollywood elite has taken up the cockfighting cause.  Wilford Brimley, the renowned actor/Quaker Oats pitchman/notorious diabetic, has spoken out against anti-cockfighting legislation in Arizona and New Mexico.  Nevertheless, the savage bloodshed has led many cockfighting opponents to cry “fowl”.  Organizations like PETA have rallied to the gamecock’s defense.

But while barbarity is an ethical and moral reason to oppose the sport, my objection rests on the grounds that it is impossible to handicap.  I’d rather bet on kangaroo boxing, or even monkey duels!  This cockfighting nonsense has ruffled my feathers. It’s frustrating enough deciding which of two roosters possesses the strength and stamina to overpower the other.  Determining the outcome is often further complicated, though, when sharp knives are strapped to the birds’ legs.   That’s right, command of the cockpit can be determined by which combatant wields the deadliest spear.  Hey good luck wagering on a damn knife fight waged by chickens!  Cock-a-doodle-dumb!

My frustration with this repugnant practice reached its zenith at a recent cockfight I attended along Nicaragua’s Mosquito Coast.  That day’s card featured some high stakes bouts, as evidenced by Wilford Brimley’s presence.  The star of the 1985 made-for-TV Star Wars spin-off Ewoks: The Battle for Endor stood along the cockpit throughout the afternoon, screaming obscenities at the gamecocks and frantically barking out wagers amidst changing odds.  Since I had very little luck during the crapshoot that was the preceding fights, I decided to approach Brimley for tips on the main event.  He begrudgingly obliged and at his behest, I put some serious coin on a local upstart named Turkey Tom, who was to fight the undefeated Colonel Crispy.  Brimley liked our bird’s chances primarily because of the deadly knives tied to his legs.  He reasoned that it would take just one piercing blow by the underdog for us to claim a handsome chunk of the purse.  Of course this was before Colonel Crispy entered the pit wielding a crowbar.  What a farce, this “sport”! 

As unreal as this sounds, Brimley hardly batted an eyelash.  He just urged on our hero with shouts of “Stick and move you cocksucker!” and  ”Float like a butterfly, murder like a damn gamecock!”  The cheerleading was all for not, though, as the Colonel wasted no time in coldcocking Turkey Tom.  And so it came to be that Colonel Crispy ruled the faux astro-turf roost of the arena that day.  I departed the Nicaraguan coast that night vowing never again to bet on a cockfight.  If the violence of cockfighting doesn’t repulse you, it’s lack of viability from a wagering standpoint should.        

Here’s the log of my weekly 2007 NFL picks as they appeared on myspace during the season. Finished 146-107-9 ATS.

2007 NFL Week 1

New Orleans +6 @ Indy
Houston -3 vs. Kansas City
Minnesota -2.5 vs. Atlanta
St. Louis -1 vs. Carolina
Denver -3.5 @ Buffalo
Washington -2.5 vs. Miami
Jets +7 vs. New England
Philly -2.5 @ Green Bay
Cleveland +4.5 vs. Pittsburgh
Jax -7 vs. Tennessee
San Diego -5.5 vs. Chicago
Detroit +2 @ Oakland
Seattle -6 vs. Tampa Bay
Dallas -5.5 vs. NY Giants
Cincinnati -2.5 vs. Baltimore
Arizona +3.5 @ San Francisco Read More »

Super Bowl XLII is nigh!  And with all the pundits crowning New England the greatest team of all time, it seems a foregone conclusion that Patriots coach Bill Belichick will polish yet another Lombardi trophy with the sleeves of his cut-off hoody.  But we bettors care not for trivial frivolities like “who wins”.  And while the Pats are 12.5 point favorites and vastly superior in most facets, they’re only 1-8 against the spread in their last nine games.  Still, it’s hard to bank on a wild card qualifier from the feeble NFC.  Especially with New England looking to make history with a perfect record. 

Fans, I’ve gotta level with you.  Truth be told, this one’s vexing even to me.  If you pick this one correctly, well congratulations, you got lucky!  I mean the wagering is the hardest part.  Bet the farm on this one and watch your dreams go runnin’ down a drain! 

But before you say I’m giving up. . . STOP!  I am not on the verge of a breakdown. . . it’s alright!  All I’m saying is come this Sunday, the safest bet is that you will thoroughly enjoy the Bridgestone Halftime Show© sponsored by Bridgestone©, featuring Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers.  I’m predicting a tight four song set made up exclusively of hits.  The time constraints and wide-ranging audience will preclude this AOR radio fossil from digging up any deep cuts.  The biggest hits during this game will be delivered by Petty’s team.  I’m gonna go with: 

• American Girl
• Runnin’ Down a Dream
• Learning to Fly
• You Wreck Me

Aw hell, I’m feeling so good about these picks I’ve gotta cast my trepidation aside and make a call on the game itself!  After all, you need to know, and as the Foremost Expert in Sports Handicapping, I better say so!  I am the Odds Conquistador and I say damn the torpedoes and full speed ahead! Take the Giants and the points!  The key will be their running game.  Those Traveling Pilsbury’s on New England’s defensive line will course the entire field in pursuit of New York’s formidable backfield combo of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw.  The Giants will cover.